This project uses modeling at a parcel scale to measure the effects of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems and tidal salt marshes. The project team will measure several parameters that will be incorporated into ArcGIS models creating comparable datasets across the Pacific coast tidal gradient. The ultimate goal is to provide science support tools for local adaptation planning from the bottom-up that may be implemented under a structured decision-making framework.

Climate change and rangeland scientists, ranchers, and land managers have worked together to develop six scenarios to address a primary management question: How can we maintain viable ranchland and their ecosystem services in light of future integrated threats? The scenarios represent alternative futures of climate/land use/hydrological change for the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition focus area (the Central Valley, surrounding foothills, and most of the southern Inner Coast Range of California).

This project assesses vulnerability of 140 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada and will develop a peer-reviewed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada bird species that are most vulnerable to climate change. The Strategy will provide recommendations for actions that managers can take now and in the future to bolster resilience to climate change.

This project models how the effects of climate-induced changes to species distributions and land use change will impact threatened species in fire-prone ecosystems in Southern California. This project also identifies and prioritizes potential management responses to climate change. Products include maps of habitat suitability under current and future conditions, population models and dynamic bioclimate envelopes, recommendations on management option, and an adaptive management framework for structured decision making.

California's native fishes are mostly endemic, with no place to go as climate change increases water temperatures and alters stream flows. Many of the alien fishes, however, are likely to benefit from the effects of climate change. The goal of this project is to synthesize life history traits, population trends, status, and threats, including climate change, for all fishes in the state into an open source platform.

The California Invasive Plant Council developed a “risk mapping” approach that combines comprehensive distribution maps with maps of current and future suitable range to show where invasive species are likely to spread.

This project conducted a systematic analysis of uncertainty in modeling the future distributions of ~50 California endemic plant species and ~50 California land birds, explicitly partitioning among 5 alternative sources of variation and testing for their respective contributions to overall variation among modeled outcomes. They mapped the uncertainty from identified sources, which can guide decisions about monitoring, restoration, acquisition, infrastructure, etc., in relation to climate change.

This project helps guide managers or planners in strategically integrating the challenges of climate change into their management of Sierra Nevada resources. The project conducted collaborative vulnerability assessments, spatial data analysis, and adaptation planning for focal resources.