Title: Climate Adaptation Commons

Project Leader: Deanne DiPietro, Research and Information Services Program Manager Sonoma Ecology Center

Funding: $100,000

Summary: This project will create an online environment in which land managers and their technical support staff can quickly find the climate adaptation information they need, communicate with each other and with the researchers producing the data, and then share lessons learned. The Climate Adaptation Commons will offer land managers a resource where they can get started and participate in a community of practice by communicating, learning, and contributing. This will result in a greater shared understanding about the use of climate change research data products, facilitate comparison of results among adaptation planning projects, and ultimately ensure that management decisions are well-informed. Improving access to meaningful, relevant information and the assistance needed to put it to use will empower land managers in their conservation planning process, resulting in more effective and coordinated conservation action.

Partners: UC Davis Information Center for the Environment; PRBO Conservation Science.

Title: How do we monitor the ecological consequences of environmental change? Developing an Environmental Change Network in the California LCC: PHASE II (Continuing Project)

Project Leader: Tomas Gardali, Director, Pacific Coast and Central Valley Group, PRBO Conservation Science

Funding: $100,000

Summary: This project proposes to establish an Environmental Change Network (ECN) for all of California. An ECN is an integrated, multidisciplinary network of long-term monitoring stations that gather and share information using standardized protocols. The ECN for the San Francisco Bay started in Phase I of this project can be viewed at http://data.prbo.org/apps/ecn/. PRBO Conservation Science has identified locations where the greatest changes in climate and bird communities are predicted to occur and will overlay locations of field stations, reserves, etc. in order to assess if existing infrastructure covers the spectrum of prioritized monitoring locations. Deliverables produced as part of this proposed work include a Business Plan that will 1) refine site selection by developing a decision model in combination with analyses of sites (or clusters of sites) arrayed by climate space, 2) work with the LCC science committee, Joint Ventures, and other partners to choose a manageable number of core monitoring variables, 3) develop and/or adopting existing protocols for those variables, 4) provide cost estimates/variable/station, and 5) provide a cost estimate for an online data management system.

Partners: Dwight Center for Conservation Science; Bay Area Early Detection; Conservation Commons; San Francisco Bay, Central Valley and Sonoran joint ventures

Title: Confronting uncertainty in species distribution projections: Increasing the applicability of an essential tool in climate change adaptation planning

Project Leader: Healy Hamilton, Director, Center for Applied Biodiversity Informatics California Academy of Sciences

Funding: $100,000

Summary: The CA Academy of Science & PRBO Conservation Science propose a systematic analysis of uncertainty in modeling the future distributions of ~50 California endemic plant species and ~50 California land birds, explicitly partitioning among 5 alternative sources of variation and testing for their respective contributions to overall variation among modeled outcomes. They will map the uncertainty from identified sources, which can guide decisions about monitoring, restoration, acquisition, infrastructure, etc., in relation to climate change. This project will: 1) investigate the effect of 5 different sources of uncertainty when characterizing plant and bird response to projected climate change; 2) develop metrics of the degree of projected change for 100 plant and bird species 3) quantitatively assess the statistical significance of the different sources of uncertainty; 4) produce maps of the proportion of variation in predictions from each of the sources of uncertainty, and 5) disseminate project results to the LCC environmental change network and beyond.

Partners: PRBO Conservation Science

Title: Sustaining healthy ecosystems in the face of sea level rise: Ensuring the Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Report continues to inform acquisition, restoration, and management of the region’s baylands. (Continuing Project)

Project Leader: Nadine Hitchcock, Deputy Executive Officer, State Coastal Conservancy

Funding: $60,374

Summary: The main goal of this project is to ensure that the 2011-13 climate change update to the Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Report (Baylands Goals) and other key, ongoing conservation activities in the San Francisco Bay region use the latest information about the current and future status of San Francisco Bay tidal marsh ecosystems, particularly in the context of sea-level rise. The main product of the project will be the improved Sea Level Rise (SLR) Tool, specifically upgraded to inform the Baylands Goals Report update. Upgrade requests will be solicited from the stakeholders most involved in the update, and those who will use the report to guide habitat management going forward. The tool will continue to be available online at www.prbo.org/sfbayslr. All data layers going into the tool are and will continue to be downloadable from the site.

Partners: Coastal Conservancy; Bay Area Ecosystem Climate Change Consortium (BAECCC); PRBO Conservation Science; SF Bay NERR; USFWS SF Bay Refuge Complex; East Bay Regional Parks; and South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project

Title: Developing an Online Invasive Species Risk-Mapping Tool: Climate Change Adaptation through Strategic Management of a Top Ecological Stressor

Project Leader: Doug Johnson, Executive Director, California Invasive Plant Council

Funding: $96,523

Summary: The California Invasive Plant Council (Cal-IPC) developed a “risk mapping” approach that combines comprehensive distribution maps with maps of current and future suitable range to show where each (invasive) species is likely to spread. The distribution maps are based on a new dataset created through a major campaign to collect expert opinion data from local resource managers across the state. From this dataset, Cal-IPC recently completed risk maps and management recommendations for 43 invasive plant species in the Sierra Nevada. The proposed project will build an online tool for these data. The tool will allow natural resource managers to generate risk maps and summary statistics for areas they select, and to determine management priorities. It will also allow local experts to update data each year, helping to monitor trends over time. Restoration ecologists at National Park units will guide development of the tool. Cal-IPC will work with the CA Dept. of Fish & Game’s Biogeographic Data Branch to integrate conservation data layers into the tool.

Partners: National Park Service, Pacific West Region; Cal. Dept. of Fish & Game, Biogeographic Data Branch; Climate Central, Dr. Nicole Heller; Technical advisors: Dr. David Ackerly, UC Berkeley; Dr. Healy Hamilton, Cal. Academy of Sciences; Dennis Jongsomjit, PRBO Science; Scott Loarie, Carnegie Institution Online tool design team: GreenInfo Network; Terra GIS Online tool reviewers: NPS restoration ecologists from CA national parks, Weed Management Area (WMA) participants

Title: Effects of climate change on inland fishes of California: tools for adaptation

Project Leader: Peter Moyle, Professor, University of California, Davis

Funding: $92,564

Summary: The goal of this project is to synthesize information has been systematically gathered since the release of the book Inland Fishes of California in 2002, on behalf of different agencies. The information includes status (75% of endemic fishes in decline, 25% in danger of extinction), population and distribution trends, life history traits, and impacts of climate change. The quantitative information will be synthesized and posted on an accessible website, and backed up by written summaries for each native species and many alien species. Analyses of status and trends of species with different vulnerabilities to climate change will be produced using the most recent models of climate change effects. Adaptation strategies for the major aquatic zoogeographic regions of California will be developed, through identification of key refuge streams for fish assemblages, including streams that could benefit from improved regulation by dams. This information will enable agencies to determine which species will be most strongly affected by climate change, positively or negatively, and to develop state and regional conservation strategies for these species.

Partners: US Forest Service; California Department of Fish and Game; California Energy Commission; Trout Unlimited; California Trout; Resource Renewal Institute; Center for Watershed Sciences (UCD)

Title: Decision support for climate change adaptation and fire management strategies for at risk species in southern California

Project Leader: Helen Regan, Associate Professor, Biology Dept., University of California Riverside

Funding: $99,867

Summary: This project will integrate fire risk models, species distribution models (SDMs) and population models with scenarios of future climate and land cover to project how the effects of climate-induced changes to species distributions and land use change will impact threatened species in fire-prone ecosystems. This project will also identify and prioritize potential management responses to climate change (e.g. assisted colonization, fire management, land protection, dispersal corridors). Anticipated products include: 1) maps (digital and hard copy) of habitat suitability under current and future climate change, current and future projected urban growth and combinations of climate change and future projected urban growth, under the two most appropriate climate scenarios for southern California; 2) linked population models and dynamic bioclimate envelopes that will form the basis for testing climate change adaptation options and other management scenarios; 3) spatially/temporally explicit recommendations on the most suitable management option (in terms of population improvement under climate change and urban growth) for each species addressed; 4) spatially explicit recommendations for functional types, and habitat specialist types, on the most suitable management option; and 5) an adaptive management framework for structured decision making that can be updated as new information becomes available.

Partners: Arizona State University; Conservation Biology Institute; U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service; San Diego Association of Governments

Title: Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds

Project Leader: Rodney Siegel, Executive Director, The Institute for Bird Populations

Funding: $82,390

Summary: This project will use the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool to assess vulnerability of 140 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada and will develop a peer-reviewed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada bird species that are most vulnerable to climate change. The Strategy will provide recommendations for actions that managers can take now and in the future to bolster resilience to climate change. They will conduct outreach efforts among Forest Service and National Park Service land managers, the California Partners in Flight community, and the general public to publicize the existence of the Strategy and the importance of proactive management to minimize negative consequence of climate change on Sierra Nevada birds.

Partners: US Forest Service; Yosemite National Park; UC Davis

Title: Pacific Coastal Fog: Using data assimilation techniques to develop ecologically relevant fog data sets, phase 1

Project Leader: Alicia Torregrosa, Physical Scientist, USGS

Funding: $99,883

Summary: The goal of this project is to create critically needed coastal fog datasets. Anticipated products from the collaboration between on-the-ground natural resource managers and a multidisciplinary coalition of physical scientists are: 1) a compilation of existing fog related data from multiple sources: satellite (AVHRR, GOES, Modis, Landsat), NOAA buoy , and airport and meteorological stations, 2) USGS Open File report documenting the results of a multiday working session with climatologists, remote sensing specialists, fog modelers, statisticians, and natural resource managers, convened to review the data, examine and assess the correlations between data streams and models, specify initial parameters to be extracted from the data fusion, and define the data assimilation framework for deriving interpolations and projections, 3) an internet-based collaboration platform to share the data, and 4) a second working session to review assimilated product, discuss a longer-term strategy for operational continuity and product refinement.

Partners: University of Washington; University of California Santa Cruz; National Park Service.

Title: Integrating Science into Decisions: Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios and Outreach for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands

Project Leader: Kristin Byrd, Physical Scientist, USGS Western Geographic Science Center

Funding: $101,628.17

Summary: This project will aid conservation of California rangelands by identifying future integrated threats of climate change and land use change, and will quantify two main co-benefits of rangeland conservation – water supply and carbon sequestration. Through a multi-stakeholder partnership, the project proponents will develop integrated climate change/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley and Chaparral and Oak Woodland eco-regions, and disseminate information about future potential threats to high priority conservation areas within the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition (CRCC) study area, which includes the foothills around the Central Valley and most of the southern Inner Coast Range.

Partners: USGS Western Geographic Science Center (WGSC); Defenders of Wildlife; USGS Center for Science, Decisions, and Resource Management; USGS California Water Science Center

Title: A Broad-Scale, Multi-Species Monitoring Protocol to Assess Wintering Shorebird Population Trends in Response to Future Land Use and Climate Change – PHASE II (Continuing Project)

Project Leader: Matt Reiter, Quantitative Avian Ecologist, PRBO Conservation Science

Funding: $90,000.00

Summary: PRBO Conservation Science is developing a broad-scale monitoring program to detect trends and quantify habitat relationships for Pacific Flyway shorebird populations. The three objectives in Phase II of this project are: 1) Complete the shorebird monitoring plan for the CA LCC by developing a sampling design and monitoring protocol for wintering shorebirds in coastal southern California and northern Mexico. 2) Develop models to evaluate the influence of habitat factors from multiple spatial scales on shorebird use of San Francisco Bay and managed wetlands in the Sacramento Valley, as a model for the entire CA LCC. 3) Develop an analytical framework to iteratively evaluate competing hypotheses about shorebird habitat associations and the impact of habitat changes as new monitoring data are available.

Partners: USFWS; US Navy; Sonoran Joint Venture; CICESE

Title: Maximizing evolutionary potential under climate change in southern California protected areas

Project Leader: Thomas B Smith, Professor, Center for Tropical Research, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLA

Funding: $82,190.00

Summary: The project objective is to transfer to California a previously developed prioritization framework that combines intraspecific genetic and morphological variation with traditionally used indices of biodiversity, and test its general utility for conservation prioritization. This project will integrate existing data on intraspecific variation of multiple species in the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreational Area with climate data and space-borne measurements of the environment to identify areas with high intraspecific variation.

Partners: National Park Service

Title: Sea-level rise modeling across the California salt marsh gradient for resource managers: evaluation of methodology

Project Leader: John Takekawa, Research Wildlife Biologist , USGS Western Ecological Research Center

Funding: $95,000.00

Summary: This project uses bottom-up modeling at a parcel scale to measure the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems and tidal salt marshes. At selected tidal marshes, the project team will measure several parameters that will be incorporated into ArcGIS models creating comparable datasets across the Pacific coast tidal gradient with a focus on 2-4 sites in the California LCC (e.g. San Diego, San Francisco Bay Refuges). The ultimate goal is to provide science support tools for local adaptation planning from the bottom-up that may be implemented under a structured decision-making framework.

Partners: North Pacific LCC; FWS Inventory and Monitoring Program, R8 and R1; NOAA National Estuary Research Reserves, Pacific coast; San Diego National Wildlife Refuges; San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuges; San Francisco Bay Joint Venture; South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project; University of California, Davis, Center for Spatial Technology and Remote Sensing, Geography

Title: Determining Landscape Connectivity and Climate Change Refugia Across the Sierra Nevada

Project Leader: Toni Morelli and Craig Moritz, Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California Berkeley

Funding: $80,513.90

Summary: This project will use species distribution modeling, population genetics, and geospatial analysis of historical vs. modern vertebrate populations to identify climate change refugia and population connectivity across the Sierra Nevada. It is hypothesized that climate change refugia will increase persistence and stability of populations and, as a result, maintain higher genetic diversity. This work will help managers assess the need to include connectivity and refugia in climate change adaptation strategies. Results will help Sierra Nevada land managers allocate limited resources, aid future scenario assessment at landscape scales, and develop a performance measure for assessing resilience.

Partners: United States Forest Service, United States Geological Survey, National Park Service, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, California Department of Fish and Game

Title: Understanding impacts of climate change on ecology and habitats of waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds: Guidance for the California LCC and other wetland habitat conservation programs in the Pacific Flyway (Continuing Project)

Project Leader: Dr. Joseph P. Fleskes, USGS Western Ecological Research Center

Funding: $108,275

Summary: This is Phase 2 of a project that is developing landscape change scenarios based upon downscaled climate models and projected urbanization to investigate impacts of these changes on habitats and ecology of waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds in the Central Valley. Specific project objectives are to: develop scenarios of Central Valley landscape change; use bioenergetics modeling and ecological relationships of waterbirds and their habitats to investigate scenario impacts on key bird metrics under different management scenarios; identify timing and locations of critical waterbird resources that are most at risk due to climate change; and develop adaptive management strategies to account for climate change in waterbird habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley.

Partners: Ducks Unlimited, Inc., Central Valley Joint Venture, PRBO Conservation Science, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of California- Davis, Delta Waterfowl Foundation